Opinion by: David Carvalho, Founder, CEO and Chief Scientist for Naoris Protocol
Satoshi Nakamoto changed how we define money. In response to the 2008 cohabitation of the financial institutions where millions made their confidence, Satoshi created a decentralized monetary system built on elliptical curve crryptography.
This combination of cold math and decentralization was a powerful compression that not only attracted Diehard skeptics, but also the world’s largest financial institutions, such as BlackRock.
In the 16 years of its existence, Bitcoin has never been hacked. However, all this is changing very soon with the advent of quantum calculation. This is the largest single threat against Bitcoin since its inception from the ashes of the global financial crisis.
When it was fixed in the science fiction area, quantum computers have become so advanced that they could plausibly tear through Bitcoin’s cryptography within five years or less. Some, like Quantum Pundit Michele Mosca, predict that it may even be possible as soon as next year.
Government bodies such as the US National Institute of Standards and Technology and the National Security Agency aim to transfer fully to quantum-proof standards by 2030. Yet the Bitcoin community looks back to theoretical solutions, such as BIP-360 (Pay-to-Quantum-resistant-HASH) or Commit-Delay-Reveal Schemes.
The time for theorization is over. If concrete steps to customize Bitcoin Blockchain are not taken now, Bitcoin’s (BTC) could all $ 2.2 trillion market capital go up in smoke. Anything that would take would be a compromised wallet or a botched transaction to erode 16 years of carefully built confidence.
Supercomputer increase
This year’s real breakthrough was Microsoft’s Majorana chip, which accelerated the timeline to create a really useful quantum superputer from decades to year. Simply put, it did so by paving the way to scalable and stable quantum systems – two of the most important issues that stand in the way of this technological miracle.
Shill for a few months and we are currently having about 100 quantum computers operating in the world already. McKinsey estimates that there will be 5,000 in 2030. These computers are not only faster than the machines we are all used to – they are a brand new breed of computer running calculations in parallel instead of in order.
Recent: Is Bitcoin’s future in danger of quantum tech?
This is deadly to classic cryptography, just as the ECDSA algorithm protects Bitcoin’s private keys. At least 30% of Bitcoin, or about 6.2 million coins, are currently sitting in Pay-to-Public-Key (P2PK) or recycled P2PK hash addresses, which are particularly vulnerable to this quantum threat.
A violation would be disastrous for holders whose funds would be gone forever, and the ecosystem as a whole. It would prove that the unspoken system can be broken. Therefore, BlackRock recently recognized the threat of quantum to Bitcoin in its updated ETF archiving. Therefore, the time to act now before it’s too late.
Preparing for Q-Day
“Q-Day” is the expression given to the day when quantum computers are finally ready to break traditional cryptography. When this day comes, Bitcoin transactions can be validated and secured today, or even 10 years ago, still be vulnerable because blockchain is fully transparent and the data remains permanently available on this headbok forever.
At the top of this, bad actors collect already encrypted data in preparation for Q-Day, in a move called “Harvest Now, Decrypt later.” It would not be unreasonable to assume that several attacks could happen at the same time across the globe when Q-Day arrives. When this happens, Bitcoin should be ready.
A future after quantity
The problem with upgrading a whole blockchain from inheritance to cryptography after quantity is that it would require a hard fork, which has become almost a taboo topic in crypto communities. This huge step could break UX, Fragment Liquidity, risk dividing the network and potentially alienates Diehard as well.
There are alternatives: Hybrid solutions that first and foremost focus on securing transactions, without touching the base layer, layered security models and quantum -proof key control and infrastructure that can prepare bitcoin for the attack that is definitely coming.
It’s not a quick solution. Especially considering how conservative and slowly moving Bitcoin has been historic. Unfortunately, there is no longer time to waste. Decisions must be made and solutions must be chosen because Bitcoin does not survive as it is in a future after quantity.
Satoshi gave the world a new monetary system, but never said it couldn’t develop. Now it is up to the community to make the choice to develop it and prepare for Q-Day instead of waiting until it’s too late. It is not the quantum that is the most significant risk of Bitcoin – it is self -satisfaction.
Opinion by: David Carvalho, founder, CEO and chief scientist for Naoris Protocol.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts and statements expressed here are the author’s alone and does not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions from Cointelegraph.