Playing on time: What the Kremlin wants in new conversations with the US on Ukraine

As high-level delegations from the United States and Russia arrive in Saudi Arabia for the second round of bilateral conversations aimed at ending the war in Ukraine, Moscow’s broadcasts will have a goal on their minds: BUY TIME.

For the Kremlin, it is important to pull out peace talks for as long as possible to seize as much Ukrainian territory as it can, and to get an over -over over Kiev in connection with the United States, as Moscow is unable to make these battlefield progress quickly, four sources are familiar with Kreml’s thinking, to Moscow.

All of these sources spoke on the condition of anonymity to share details of sensitive diplomatic questions.

“Time is currently on our side and we will try to make the most of it,” a Russian diplomat told the Moscow Times.

While President Vladimir Putin said he in principle accepted Trump’s proposed 30-day ceasefire, he emphasized that “nuances” are important to the Moscow-a signal that Russia will insist on its maximum requirement before it agrees to put weapons down.

These are the nuances that Putin’s broadcasts have been assigned to start taking into account the negotiations in Jeddah, Saudi -Arabia on Monday.

Ideally, the Kremlin hopes that Washington will either tacitly allow Russia to continue moving on on the battlefield, while diplomats dealer-or even pressure kyiv to fully withdraw his troops from Russian-occupied regions, including Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, a current Russian official said.

Moscow claims that Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions are Russian territory despite not fully controlling any of them.

Moscow is bent by solidifying these regions at all costs, as Putin cannot politically afford to give them up after involving their status in the Constitution, a Kremlin-bound official said.

“There is no constitutional mechanism for regions to detach ourselves. We need all Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Either Trump affects them to leave or we are told, ‘Go into long negotiations and simply use military strength to establish control.’ It is the worst option for us because river transitions are always painful operations, ”the official said.

Alternatively, Russia could try to seize parts of another Ukrainian region such as Dnipropetrovsk or Sumy and then offer a trade for Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the official continued.

“We hope to find an opportunity that does not involve forcing dnipro and storms kherson [the city is on the right bank; Russian forces control the left]. I really hope it doesn’t come to it. That would mean to us thousands of injuries, ”he said.

With regard to military logistics, Russian forces in their current state cannot realistically aim anything beyond the Slovian-dniprovsk area, he added.

“Physically, this strength can not go anywhere anymore or do anything more,” he said. “Of course, Odesa is impossible. And we don’t even need that.”

Kremlin -broadcasts

Moscow sends experienced dealers to his second meeting with the United States in Saudi Arabia on Sunday.

Among them is Senator Grigory Karasin, a former Deputy General Foreign Minister, who spent 47 years in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and for many years handled “Ukrainian Dossier”, including participation in the preparation of both Minsk agreements, which the Kremlin considered a great success.

Sergei Beseda, another Ukraine expert, who acts as an adviser to FSB director Alexander Ledernikov, will also be present during the negotiations.

For years, Beseda FSB’s fifth service led responsible for intelligence collection, recruitment of source and undermining activities in Ukraine.

He played a key role in planning According to To journalists Andrei Soldatov and Irina Borogan.

Sunday’s negotiations first mark that Beseda will perform at a public official event since then, albeit in a lower capacity-what he suggests that he was actually dismissed from the FSB’s fifth service after the botched invasion.

“These guys know that Ukraine is talking from the inside out. They have been tasked with nitpicking each comma,” said a Moscow Times source.

Territorial targets

When deciding which countries will go to which side, Moscow believes that the exact location of the dividing line is not of critical importance to Washington, two Russian officials told the Moscow times.

“As I understand it, Trump wants a modern, well-armed, pro-Western Ukraine. He can’t just give Ukraine completely. But how accurate the border is drawn is not so crucial to him,” said a Moscow Times source.

As Moscow Times has previously reported, Russia will try to paint Ukraine as the obstacle for peace in the hope of fooling concessions from Washington.

Although the Kremlin has not agreed to Trump’s proposal for a full ceasefire and a partial truce that stops strikes on energy infrastructure has not yet been signed, Russia’s Foreign Ministry has already begun to accuse Kiev of violations.

Both Ukrainian and Russian forces have launched heavy strikes in recent days.

“We believe that the ceasefire proposed by the US president has already been violated by the Kyiv regime. How the US side will now deal with this deteriorating terrorist foam, sorry for my language-it is a big question,” said the Ministry of Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova at the state channel one-TV company on Thursday.

Moscow wants these negotiations to be prepared as detailed as the other Minsk agreements. This could take a significant amount of time – as much as several weeks.

“Things are taking place more according to Russia’s scenario. Whether this moratorium [on strikes on energy infrastructure and ships in the Black Sea] will happen is still unclear, ” said Fyodor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of the Kreml-friendly Journal Russia in Global Affairs. “But even if it is implemented, it does not directly change the situation on the battlefield, where the initiative is currently belonging to Russia.”

Still, Israeli military expert David Sharp raised doubts that Russia could realistically catch as much land as it wants, without external help before a peace agreement is reached.

“The Russian army is unable to quickly and fully occupy the territories of the four annexed Ukrainian regions. For Russians, it is seen to catch even a few villages as a huge success,” Sharp told the Moscow Times.

“To cross DNIPRO and seize Kherson – or even take the city of Zaporizhzhia without having to cross the river, as Zaporizhzhia is on both banks – something extraordinary would have to happen. This is an extremely difficult task. Either the Russian army would be dramatically strengthened, which can not happen suddenly or beyond nothing but to be a completely collapse. Over time, ”Sharp said.